美元兵败非农，商品绝地反击

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欧洲时段，美国7月非农报告远低于预期重挫美元，ICE美元指数快速回落至82下方，商品和非美强劲反弹收复早盘跌幅，黄金价格反弹32美元至1318，银价拉升1美元重回20美元上方，铜价进一步走高测试3.20重要阻力位。

万众瞩目的非农报告最终令投资者大失所望，7月非农新增就业人数仅为16.2万，远低于经济学家预期18.5万，前值也从19.5万向下修正至18.8万。由于前期公布的初请，ADP和ISM制造业就业指数均大幅改善，导致投资者一度认为上月非农将大幅改善，事实与预期的巨大落差打压美元一泻千里。不过日内数据并非毫无亮点，美国7月失业率从7.6%降至7.4%，创2008年12月以来新低，或部分抵消了非农就业低于预期的消极影响，此外6月个人消费支出上升0.5%，单月增幅创今年2月以来新高，6月核心个人消费支出物价指数年率维持在1.3%，符合市场预期，显示总体物价水平维持稳定。

尽管单月数据表现不佳，但就业市场并未脱离长期温和改善的轨迹。与去年同期相比，今年1月-7月非农月均新增就业人数达到19.2万，是2006年以来最高水平，2011和2012年前7个月月均新增人数仅为16.8万和18.1万。短期内投资者或对市场反应过激，虽不排除美元面临进一步回落的风险，但考虑到美国经济总体维持健康，投资者可能缺乏足够的激励做空美元，目前判断美元中期升势已经结束为时尚早，美元短期可能暂时陷入区间震荡。（陈东阳 sdychen@fxcmasia.com）

金价时段内大幅反弹，重新站上1300整数关口上方，不过鉴于金价已经下破6月底以来上行趋势线，中短期走势或转为向下，上方强劲阻力关注7月高点1346美元，只有上破该位置才有望再度打开上行空间。

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银价时段内一度大幅反弹，不过目前仍受阻于上升通道下轨和4月以来下行趋势线，只有上破才能打开反弹空间，否则后市更倾向于下行。

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铜价连续三个交易日大幅上涨，目前多头正在测试2月以来下行趋势线，上破则可能进一步涨至3.240（100日均线），持续受阻则可能再度回落至前期底部。

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