伯南克：中国操纵人民币汇率 日本货币政策是合适的

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　　美联储主席伯南克周三在向美国国会众议院金融服务委员会发表的事先准备好的证词中称，美联储绝不会预先设定每月850亿美元债券购买计划的缩减进程，如果就业形势恶化、通货膨胀率无法回到美联储设定的2%的目标水平、抑或金融市场形势过紧，美联储可能维持现有购债计划不变，甚至会扩大购买规模。这是迄今为止伯南克发表的观点最为清晰的讲话。(伯南克国会证词图文直播)


　　但伯南克同时指出，如果经济形势好于美联储的预期，该央行可能会加速收缩购债计划。被称为定量宽松政策的购债计划旨在压低长期利率，促进就业、投资与支出。


　　在国会证词演讲结束后的问答环节中，伯南克对日本和中国的货币政策措施进行了比较。伯南克称，中国操纵人民币汇率，使之连续多年维持在均衡水准之下，以增加出口。对于日本近来的持续宽松政策，伯南克认为，日本未试图操纵日元汇率，并对日本提振经济的努力表示欢迎。日本正在采取强有力的国内货币政策措施，以摆脱困扰该国约15年之久的通货紧缩。而这些措施产生的一个“副作用”就是日元走软，日本经济加快增长符合美国的利益。
　　伯南克曾在6月19日的新闻发布会上称，如果经济形势如美联储预期般出现改善，则美联储将可能于今年晚些时候开始缩减每月的购债规模。如果经济状况继续像美联储预期的那样有所好转，美联储将在2014年年中彻底退出购债计划，美联储预计届时失业率将从6月份的7.6%降至7%左右。

　　伯南克周三表示，他之前制定的时间表是购债计划在经济如预期般改善前提下可能出现的轨迹，并不代表美联储政策的转变。
　　在强调购债计划的相关决定将取决于经济发展前景的同时，伯南克还著重指出了可能迫使美联储调整经济预期的风险因素。
　　他表示，自从去年秋季以来，经济面临的风险已有所减弱，但联邦财政政策仍对经济构成威胁，未来几个季度对经济增长的不利影响或超出美联储官员的预期。他还警告称，国会两党即将就预算问题进行辩论，同时国会还需在今秋晚些时候上调联邦政府债务上限，这两个问题都可能抑制经济复苏步伐。
　　伯南克也很看重通货膨胀问题，近期美国的通胀率一直低于美联储2%的目标。他表示，造成通胀低迷的原因有些可能是暂时性的，中长期通胀预期总体稳定。但伯南克也称，美联储官员非常清楚通胀水平过低会给经济带来的风险，例如，通胀过低会导致资本投资的实际成本上升，进而增加全面通缩的风险。因此伯南克承诺将密切留意通胀形势，他表示，必要时美联储将采取措施确保通胀率向2%的目标回升。根据美联储更为看重的一项指标，目前美国的通胀率约为1%。
　　此外，伯南克明确表示，影响美联储购债决策的不仅仅是就业状况。
　　他表示，如果就业前景恶化，通货膨胀未能朝着2%的目标回升，或是美联储认为金融环境(近期趋于紧张)不够宽松，不能为美联储实现职责目标创造条件，那麽当前的购债步伐可能会保持更长时间。
　　实际上，他表示，必要时美联储将做好动用所有工具的准备，其中包括暂时加快购债步伐，以期在物价稳定的前提下实现充分就业。
　　伯南克重申了近几周来的一贯表态，称即使美联储在今年晚些时候缩减规模，也还是计划在一段时期内将短期利率维持在零水平附近。
　　他表示，失业率仍然偏高且下降速度缓慢，同时通胀率又低于美联储2%的目标，因此在可以预见的未来仍然宜于实施高度宽松的货币政策。
　　他表示，应将美联储所谓的“前瞻性指导”看作是个门槛，而不是促使美联储上调短期利率的直接触发因素。伯南克所说的“前瞻性指导”，是指美联储关于至少在失业率高于6.5%时把短期利率维持在零水平附近的官方声明。
　　伯南克表示，即使失业率降至6.5%，美联储也会对就业市场、通胀形势和整体经济状况进行评估，之后才会决定是否上调利率。例如，伯南克指出，如果美联储判断认为失业率下降主要是人们因沮丧而退出劳动力市场，那麽美联储不可能仅仅因为此时失业率降至6.5%就上调联邦基金利率目标。
　　如果通胀率持续低于2%的政策目标，那么美联储也不太可能加息。
　　伯南克还表示，即使将来上调短期利率，这一过程也是逐步进行。
　　伯南克表示，在债券购买计划结束后，美联储将持有其所购买的全部债券，而不是将其卖出。伯南克说，持有债券将继续给中长期利率施加下行压力，支持抵押贷款市场，同时有助于将整体金融环境保持在更为宽松的水平上。
　　另外，美联储在提交给国会的货币政策报告中指出，利率上升和波动可能抑制了投资者的部分风险交易。美联储此前曾警告说，长时间的低利率可能导致一些投资者过度进行风险交易。

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